Alexis Galarneau vs Jacob Fearnley — Newport Semi-final
Galarneau A.
Alexis Galarneau faces Jacob Fearnley in the Newport semi-final on grass. Jacob Fearnley holds the paper edge — ranked #159. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jacob Fearnley has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 86 vs 28).
- Freshness: Alexis Galarneau comes in with 1 days of rest and 64 games in 14d, vs Jacob Fearnley's 1 and 105.
- Last match: Alexis Galarneau dropped just 5 games past Daniel Milavsky.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGalarneau A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 64 games (7d) · Fearnley J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.