Adrian Mannarino vs Alexis Galarneau — Newport Round of 16
Mannarino A.
Adrian Mannarino faces Alexis Galarneau in the Newport round of 16 on grass. Adrian Mannarino holds the paper edge — ranked #40, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Mannarino A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Adrian Mannarino comes in with 6 days of rest and 50 games in 14d, vs Alexis Galarneau's 14 and 20.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Adrian Mannarino has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 67 vs 24).
- Last match: Alexis Galarneau dropped the opening set before beating Juan Pablo Ficovich 4–6 6–4 7–6.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMannarino A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Galarneau A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.