Daniel Milavsky vs Kaichi UchidaNewport Round of 32

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#367ATP
1349ELO
1355Grass ELO
24 yrs
Last 10
WWLLWWWLWL
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
grass
#257ATP
1355ELO
1390Grass ELO
31 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLLLL
Milavsky D.
vs
Uchida K.

Daniel Milavsky faces Kaichi Uchida in the Newport round of 32 on grass. Kaichi Uchida holds the paper edge — ranked #257, a roughly 40-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Milavsky D.45%
Uchida K.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Grass Elo 1355
Surface ELO
5.4+35 Grass Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1348
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1355
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
3.13 of last 9 on grass
Win streak
0.0Lost last 9
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Hard → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

13 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
48%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
34%
33%
Break points saved·Clear edge
74%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.2
4.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Milavsky D.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Uchida K.

Uchida K.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Milavsky D.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
78
96

Milavsky D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Uchida K.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 67%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.