Quinn Vandecasteele vs Daniel MilavskyNewport Qualifying Final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#455ATP
1383ELO
1352Grass ELO
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLLLWW
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
grass
#367ATP
1349ELO
1355Grass ELO
24 yrs
Last 10
WLLWWWLWLW
Vandecasteele Q.
vs
Milavsky D.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Vandecasteele Q.53%
Milavsky D.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0Grass Elo 1352
Surface ELO
5.0+3 Grass Elo edge
5.4Overall Elo 1383
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1348
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.74 of last 7 on grass
Surface form
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Hard → Grass
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 13 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
61%
74%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.4
7.2
Double faults / match·Even
3.5
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Vandecasteele Q.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Milavsky D.

Milavsky D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Vandecasteele Q.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
97
78

Vandecasteele Q.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Milavsky D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
19°CDrizzle
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 91%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.