Stefan Kozlov vs Garrett Johns — Newport Qualifying Final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
Stefan Kozlov
USA
Stefan Kozlov
#317ATP
1429ELO
1414Grass ELO
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLWWWL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
grass
COURT 1 · 1st on
Garrett Johns
USA
Garrett Johns
#382ATP
1336ELO
1368Grass ELO
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLWWLWW
Kozlov S.
vs
Johns G.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:21 UTC
Kozlov S.72%
Johns G.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kozlov S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kozlov S.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Johns G.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.6+46 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Grass Elo 1368
6.2Overall Elo 1429
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1336
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.45 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kozlov S.Rising
Johns G.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

32 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
Kozlov S.Johns G.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
53%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Even
56%
60%
Aces / match·Even
2.8
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kozlov S.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Johns G.

Johns G.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Kozlov S.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kozlov S.Johns G.
Clutch Rating·Even
37
36
Break points saved·Clear edge
49
66
Break points won·Clear edge
20
3
Deciding sets·Slight edge
85
91
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
31
11

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kozlov S.Johns G.
Freshness·Clear edge
74
88

Kozlov S.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Johns G.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on COURT 1 · not before Starting at 11:00 AM · up next on court

  1. 1Kozlov S. v Johns G.This match
  2. 2Maloney P. v Matsuoka H.
  3. 4Tomic B. v Shick B.

Conditions

Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 94%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.