Patrick Maloney vs Hayato MatsuokaNewport Qualifying Final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#781ATP
1321ELO
1371Grass ELO
26 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLLWLLW
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
grass
COURT 1 · 2nd on
#346ATP
1361ELO
1380Grass ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLWLWWL
Maloney P.
vs
Matsuoka H.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:21 UTC
Maloney P.35%
Matsuoka H.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Matsuoka H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
6.2
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
4.9Grass Elo 1371
Surface ELO
5.1+10 Grass Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1321
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1361
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
7.0Hard → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Maloney P.Not enough recent matches

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

32 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·
66%
1st serve points won·
68%
2nd serve points won·
51%
Service points won·
62%
Return points won·
40%
Break points saved·
54%
Aces / match·
3.7
Double faults / match·
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
88
96

Maloney P.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Matsuoka H.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on COURT 1 · not before Followed by · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Kozlov S. v Johns G.
  2. 2Maloney P. v Matsuoka H.This match
  3. 4Tomic B. v Shick B.

Conditions

Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 93%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.