Andre Ilagan vs Alex Rybakov — Newport Qualifying Final
Ilagan A.Andre Ilagan faces Alex Rybakov in the Newport qualifying final on grass. Andre Ilagan holds the paper edge — ranked #263, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Ilagan A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Alex Rybakov edged Tung Lin Wu in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
- Fatigue load: Andre Ilagan carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadIlagan A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Rybakov A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
1st on CENTER COURT 2 · not before Starting at 11:00 AM · up next on court
- 1Ilagan A. v Rybakov A.This match
- 3Glinka D. v Yunchaokete B.
- 4Holmgren A. v Schoolkate T.
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.