Liam Broady vs Andre Ilagan — Newport Round of 16

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Liam Broady
GBR
Liam Broady
#209ATP
1590ELO
1504Grass ELO
32 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLWLWL
—
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
grass
USA
Andre Ilagan
#263ATP
1543ELO
1472Grass ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWWWWL
Broady L.
vs
Ilagan A.

Liam Broady faces Andre Ilagan in the Newport round of 16 on grass. Liam Broady is the paper favourite — ranked #209, a roughly 30-point grass Elo advantage — but Andre Ilagan rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC
Broady L.73%
Ilagan A.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Broady L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Liam Broady comes in with 6 days of rest and 48 games in 14d, vs Andre Ilagan's 1 and 71.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Liam Broady has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 58 vs 36).
  • Win streak: Andre Ilagan arrives on a 3-match winning run.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Broady L.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Ilagan A.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+32 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1472
5.6Overall Elo 1590
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1543
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.04 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Broady L.Sliding
Ilagan A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
Broady L.Ilagan A.
1st serve in·Even
66%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.3
4.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.3
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Broady L.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Ilagan A.

Ilagan A.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Broady L.

Serve advantage — Broady L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Broady L.Ilagan A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
58
36
Break points saved·Slight edge
86
76
Break points won·Clear edge
29
17
Deciding sets·Clear edge
79
66
Tiebreaks·Dominant
65
17

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Broady L.Ilagan A.
Freshness·Clear edge
86
68

Broady L.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Ilagan A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
25°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 81%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.