Stefan Kozlov vs Yibing WuNewport Round of 32

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#317ATP
1429ELO
1414Grass ELO
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWLWWW
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
grass
COURT 1 · 6th on
#102ATP
1743ELO
1517Grass ELO
$472kYTD
$1.9MCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLLWLWW
Kozlov S.
vs
Wu Y.

Stefan Kozlov faces Yibing Wu in the Newport round of 32 on grass. Yibing Wu holds the paper edge — ranked #102, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:20 UTC
Kozlov S.8%
Wu Y.92%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Wu Y. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Grass Elo 1414
Surface ELO
6.3+103 Grass Elo edge
1.1Overall Elo 1429
ELO gap
8.9Overall Elo 1743
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.75 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
1.82 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kozlov S.Rising
Wu Y.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

32 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
53%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Even
56%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.8
3.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kozlov S.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Wu Y.

Wu Y.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Kozlov S.

Serve advantage — Wu Y.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
36
83
Break points saved·Dominant
49
94
Break points won·Dominant
20
57
Deciding sets·Clear edge
85
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
30
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
71
91

Kozlov S.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d) · Wu Y.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
22°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 90%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.