Jason Jung vs Alex Michelsen — Newport Round of 16
Jung J.
Jason Jung faces Alex Michelsen in the Newport round of 16 on grass. Alex Michelsen is the paper favourite — ranked #46, a roughly 290-point grass Elo advantage — but Jason Jung rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Michelsen A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Alex Michelsen has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 78 vs Jason Jung's 21).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jason Jung 58 games in 14 days, Alex Michelsen 44.
- Last match: Alex Michelsen dropped just 5 games past Hayato Matsuoka.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadJung J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d) · Michelsen A.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.