Arthur Gea vs Adam WaltonNewport

Newport · CHALLENGER
#136ATP
1597ELO
1505Grass ELO
$352kYTD
$604kCAREER
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWLWLL
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
grass
#85ATP
1703ELO
1565Grass ELO
$499kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWWLWW
Gea A.
vs
Walton A.

Arthur Gea faces Adam Walton in the Newport match on grass. Adam Walton holds the paper edge — ranked #85, a roughly 60-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:21 UTC
Gea A.15%
Walton A.85%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Walton A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.2Grass Elo 1505
Surface ELO
5.8+60 Grass Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1596
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1703
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.55 of last 8 on grass
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Gea A.Stable
Walton A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 41 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
55%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Even
65%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.5
7.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gea A.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Walton A.

Walton A.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Gea A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
36
65
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
95
Break points won·Slight edge
27
20
Deciding sets·Dominant
20
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
82
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
83

Gea A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Walton A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.