Pierluigi Basile vs Marco Cecchinato — Milan Quarter-final
Basile P.Pierluigi Basile faces Marco Cecchinato in the Milan quarter-final on clay. Marco Cecchinato holds the paper edge — ranked #195, a roughly 240-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Cecchinato M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Pierluigi Basile comes in with 2 days of rest and 29 games in 14d, vs Marco Cecchinato's 2 and 71.
- Surface form: Both 6 of 9 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadBasile P.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Cecchinato M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.