Daniel Rincon vs Mathys Erhard — Milan Round of 16
Rincon D.
Daniel Rincon faces Mathys Erhard in the Milan round of 16 on clay. Daniel Rincon is the paper favourite — ranked #261, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage — but Mathys Erhard arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Daniel Rincon's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 11:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Rincon D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Daniel Rincon 91 games in 14 days, Mathys Erhard 120.
- Last match: Daniel Rincon advanced when Jacopo Vasami retired.
- Last match: Mathys Erhard dropped just 5 games past Jurij Rodionov.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.