Elmer Moller vs Norbert GombosMilan Round of 32

Milan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#147ATP
1628ELO
1614Clay ELO
$153kYTD
$725kCAREER
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLWWW
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
clay
COURT 13 · 4th on
#364ATP
1472ELO
1455Clay ELO
35 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWLLWL
Moller E.
vs
Gombos N.

Elmer Moller faces Norbert Gombos in the Milan round of 32 on clay. Elmer Moller holds the paper edge — ranked #147, a roughly 160-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Moller E.83%
Gombos N.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Moller E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Elmer Moller comes in with 5 days of rest and 32 games in 14d, vs Norbert Gombos's 1 and 110.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Elmer Moller has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 68 vs 41).
  • Surface form: Elmer Moller 7 of 10, Norbert Gombos 5 of 10 on clay recently — Elmer Moller the sharper of late.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.0+158 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Clay Elo 1455
6.9Overall Elo 1628
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1472
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.57 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Moller E.Rising
Gombos N.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
55%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.0
4.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.1
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Moller E.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Gombos N.

Gombos N.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Moller E.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
68
41
Break points saved·Even
81
83
Break points won·Dominant
58
8
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
68
Tiebreaks·Dominant
80
42

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
90
79

Moller E.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 32 games (7d) · Gombos N.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

4th on COURT 13 · not before Not Before 16:00 · 3 matches still to finish ahead

  1. 1Erhard M. v Rodionov J.
  2. 2Mcdonald N. v Martin Manzano J.
  3. 3Ribecai M. v Rapagnetta D.
  4. 4Moller E. v Gombos N.This match

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.