Elmer Moller vs Pierluigi Basile

Milan · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

DEN

Elmer Moller

#147ATP

1628ELO

1614Clay ELO

$153kYTD

$725kCAREER

22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLWWWLWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 2 July 2026 · 10:00

clay

ITA

Pierluigi Basile

#839ATP

1285ELO

1296Clay ELO

19 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWWLWWLL

Moller E.

Basile P.

Elmer Moller faces Pierluigi Basile in the Milan round of 16 on clay. Elmer Moller holds the paper edge — ranked #147, a roughly 320-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC

Moller E.83%

Basile P.17%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Moller E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Pierluigi Basile dropped the opening set before beating Oriol Roca Batalla 6–7 6–3 6–1.
Surface form: Elmer Moller 7 of 10, Pierluigi Basile 5 of 10 on clay recently — Elmer Moller the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Pierluigi Basile carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Moller E.

7.8

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Basile P.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

9.0+318 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

1.0Clay Elo 1296

9.3Overall Elo 1628

ELO gap

0.7Overall Elo 1285

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.97 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.25 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Moller E.Rising

Basile P.Risingearly

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 6 matches

Statistics

This season

Moller E.Basile P.

1st serve in·Even

61%

58%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

62%

72%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

47%

52%

Service points won·Slight edge

56%

63%

Return points won·Slight edge

41%

31%

Break points saved·Clear edge

55%

69%

Aces / match·Dominant

2.0

6.8

Double faults / match·Dominant

5.1

2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Moller E.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Basile P.

Basile P.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Moller E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Moller E.Basile P.

Freshness·

—

Moller E.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

24°CClear

Wind 2 km/hHumidity 68%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Elmer Moller vs Pierluigi Basile — Milan Round of 16