Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Miguel TobonMilan Round of 32

Milan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#87ATP
1681ELO
1668Clay ELO
$294kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
clay
COURT 10 · 2nd on
#449ATP
1328ELO
1311Clay ELO
20 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLLWL
Diaz Acosta F.
6-2 6-2
Tobon M.
Diaz Acosta F.
662
Tobon M.
220

Facundo Diaz Acosta defeated Miguel Tobon 6-2, 6-2 in the Round of 32 of the Milan clay tournament. Diaz Acosta converted 44% of his break points and won 90% of his first-serve points to secure the win. He won four service breaks to Tobon's zero.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Even
43%
40%
Break points saved·Even
60%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
5.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Diaz Acosta F.79%
Tobon M.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Diaz Acosta F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.0+321 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.0Clay Elo 1326
8.9Overall Elo 1654
ELO gap
1.1Overall Elo 1341
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.68 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.74 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
61

Diaz Acosta F.: 18 days rest · Tobon M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 89 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
30°CPartly cloudy
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw