Filippo Romano vs Marco CecchinatoMilan Round of 32

Milan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#301ATP
1516ELO
1365Clay ELO
20 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWWWWLW
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
clay
#159ATP
1565ELO
1535Clay ELO
$149kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWWLWL
Romano F.
vs
Cecchinato M.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC
Romano F.39%
Cecchinato M.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cecchinato M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
2.9Clay Elo 1365
Surface ELO
7.1+170 Clay Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1516
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1564
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.57 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
56%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.9
3.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Romano F.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Cecchinato M.

Cecchinato M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Romano F.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
95
85

Romano F.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Cecchinato M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
31°CMainly clear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 49%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.