Marco Cecchinato vs Raul Brancaccio — Milan Round of 16
Cecchinato M.Marco Cecchinato faces Raul Brancaccio in the Milan round of 16 on clay. Marco Cecchinato holds the paper edge — ranked #195, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Cecchinato M. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Marco Cecchinato comes in with 8 days of rest and 90 games in 14d, vs Raul Brancaccio's 8 and 21.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Marco Cecchinato has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 42 vs 12).
- Last match: Marco Cecchinato dropped the opening set before beating Filippo Romano 5–7 6–2 6–1.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCecchinato M.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Brancaccio R.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-24 | Parma | R32 | clay | Marco Cecchinato | 6-3 7-6(5) |