Gustavo Heide vs Federico Agustin GomezMilan Round of 32

Milan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#138ATP
1639ELO
1629Clay ELO
$139kYTD
$581kCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWWLWL
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
clay
#212ATP
1433ELO
1400Clay ELO
$29kYTD
$680kCAREER
29 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWLWLWL
Heide G.
vs
Gomez F.

Gustavo Heide faces Federico Agustin Gomez in the Milan round of 32 on clay. Gustavo Heide holds the paper edge — ranked #138, a roughly 230-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Heide G.90%
Gomez F.10%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Heide G. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
3.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
7.9+230 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Clay Elo 1400
7.6Overall Elo 1639
ELO gap
2.4Overall Elo 1433
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
7.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.13 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Heide G.Cooling
Gomez F.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
50%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.0
4.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
5.1
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Heide G.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Gomez F.

Gomez F.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Heide G.

Serve advantage — Heide G.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
48
34
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
82
Break points won·Slight edge
10
18
Deciding sets·Even
57
57
Tiebreaks·Dominant
81
13

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
67
94

Heide G.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 58 games (7d) · Gomez F.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.