Mathys Erhard vs Jurij Rodionov — Milan Round of 32

Milan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
FRAQ
Mathys Erhard
#337ATP
1382ELO
1351Clay ELO
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
clay
COURT 13 · 1st on
Jurij Rodionov
AUT6
Jurij Rodionov
#134ATP
1636ELO
1586Clay ELO
$206kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 191 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLL
Erhard M.
6-3 6-2
Rodionov J.
Erhard M.
662
Rodionov J.
320

Mathys Erhard defeated Jurij Rodionov in the Round of 32 of the Milan clay tournament. Erhard won the match 6-3, 6-2. He hit 6 aces to Rodionov's 3 and converted 50% of his break points to secure 5 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Erhard M.Rodionov J.
1st serve in·Even
62%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
39%
Break points saved·Even
65%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.7
5.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Erhard M.Rodionov J.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
23
6
Break points saved·Even
73
75
Break points won·Clear edge
19
2
Deciding sets·Clear edge
37
23
Tiebreaks·Even
11
11

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Erhard M.21%
Rodionov J.79%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Rodionov J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Erhard M.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Rodionov J.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
2.7Clay Elo 1356
Surface ELO
7.3+184 Clay Elo edge
2.2Overall Elo 1385
ELO gap
7.8Overall Elo 1606
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.46 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Erhard M.Rodionov J.
Freshness·Even
92
89

Erhard M.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Rodionov J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
27°CPartly cloudy
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw