Daniel Rincon vs Mathys Erhard — Milan Round of 16

Milan · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
ESP
Daniel Rincon
#206ATP
1522ELO
1469Clay ELO
23 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
FRAQ
Mathys Erhard
#337ATP
1382ELO
1351Clay ELO
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
Rincon D.
6-4 7-6
Erhard M.
Rincon D.
672
Erhard M.
460

Daniel Rincon advanced to the quarterfinals of the Milan clay tournament by defeating Mathys Erhard 6-4, 7-6 in the Round of 16. Rincon hit two aces and committed five double faults, while Erhard had no aces and one double fault. Rincon converted all his break points and won four service breaks to Erhard's three.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Rincon D.Erhard M.
1st serve in·Even
59%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.9
4.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rincon D.Erhard M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
41
23
Break points saved·Clear edge
50
73
Break points won·Clear edge
34
19
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
37
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
16
11

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Rincon D.72%
Erhard M.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Rincon D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rincon D.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Erhard M.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+114 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1356
6.7Overall Elo 1521
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1385
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
5.75 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rincon D.Erhard M.
Freshness·Slight edge
100
93

Rincon D.: 16 days rest · Erhard M.: 12 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
32°CShowers
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 36%

Draw