Francisco Comesana vs Daniel RinconMilan Quarter-final

Milan · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#109ATP
1695ELO
1656Clay ELO
$583kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
#206ATP
1522ELO
1469Clay ELO
23 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLW
Comesana F.
4-6 7-5 6-7
Rincon D.
Comesana F.
4761
Rincon D.
6572

Daniel Rincon advanced to the semifinals of the Milan clay-court tournament by defeating Francisco Comesana in a three-set quarterfinal match, 6-4, 5-7, 7-6. Rincon and Comesana were evenly matched in service breaks, each converting five. Rincon hit two aces to Comesana's seven, and had a higher first-serve win percentage, at 71 to 67.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
41%
Break points saved·Even
55%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.2
2.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
7
41
Break points saved·Dominant
83
50
Break points won·Clear edge
16
34
Deciding sets·Dominant
4
93
Tiebreaks·Even
12
16

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Comesana F.82%
Rincon D.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Comesana F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.3+187 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Clay Elo 1469
7.2Overall Elo 1695
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1521
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.88 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.76 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
91
99

Comesana F.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Rincon D.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
33°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 30%

Draw