Francisco Comesana vs Daniel Rincon — Milan Quarter-final
Comesana F.
Francisco Comesana faces Daniel Rincon in the Milan quarter-final on clay. Francisco Comesana holds the paper edge — ranked #91, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Comesana F. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Francisco Comesana comes in with 1 days of rest and 48 games in 14d, vs Daniel Rincon's 2 and 65.
- Last match: Francisco Comesana handed D. Dedura a third-set bagel in a 7–6 6–7 6–0 win.
- Last match: Daniel Rincon edged Mathys Erhard in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadComesana F.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Rincon D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 9 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.