Daniel Rincon vs Facundo Diaz AcostaMilan Semi-final

Milan · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#261ATP
1521ELO
1469Clay ELO
23 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLWL
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
clay
#120ATP
1654ELO
1647Clay ELO
$264kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWWWWL
Rincon D.
vs
Diaz Acosta F.

Daniel Rincon faces Facundo Diaz Acosta in the Milan semi-final on clay. Facundo Diaz Acosta holds the paper edge — ranked #120, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 180-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.8Clay Elo 1469
Surface ELO
7.2+178 Clay Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1521
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1654
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
7.67 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

15 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
62%
Aces / match·Even
2.8
2.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Rincon D.serving49% hold

wins 49% of points on serve vs Diaz Acosta F.

Diaz Acosta F.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Rincon D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
40
56
Break points saved·Dominant
50
89
Break points won·Even
34
33
Deciding sets·Dominant
91
61
Tiebreaks·Dominant
15
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
83
79

Rincon D.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 32 games (7d) · Diaz Acosta F.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-04-15BarcelonaR64clayFacundo Diaz Acosta6-1 6-4