Daniel Rincon vs Facundo Diaz AcostaMilan Semi-final

Milan · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#206ATP
1522ELO
1469Clay ELO
23 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#87ATP
1681ELO
1668Clay ELO
$294kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLLW
Rincon D.
6-4 4-6 3-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Rincon D.
6431
Diaz Acosta F.
4662

Facundo Diaz Acosta defeated Daniel Rincon 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the semifinals of the Milan clay court tournament. Diaz Acosta hit 2 aces and 2 double faults, winning 76% of his first serves and converting 21% of break points. Rincon had 5 aces and 4 double faults, winning 67% of his first serves and converting 50% of break points.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-04-15BarcelonaR64clayFacundo Diaz Acosta6-1 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Even
58%
62%
Return points won·Even
41%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
60%
Aces / match·Even
2.9
3.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
41
5
Break points saved·Clear edge
50
72
Break points won·Clear edge
34
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
4
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
16
25

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Rincon D.17%
Diaz Acosta F.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Diaz Acosta F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.8Clay Elo 1469
Surface ELO
7.2+178 Clay Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1521
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1654
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
7.67 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Rincon D.: 16 days rest · Diaz Acosta F.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
32°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 38%

Draw