Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova — Berlin
Pegula J.
Jessica Pegula faces Katerina Siniakova in the Berlin match on grass. Jessica Pegula is the paper favourite — ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's round of 16 — but Katerina Siniakova rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Pegula J. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Jessica Pegula comes in with 21 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Katerina Siniakova's 1 and 36.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jessica Pegula has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 96 vs 62).
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula leads the head-to-head 5–1, 2–1 on grass. Last met at Wuhan 2025.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPegula J.: 21 days rest · Siniakova K.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on STEFFI GRAF STADION · not before Followed by · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Vekic D. v Eala A.
- 2Pegula J. v Siniakova K.This match
- 4Sabalenka A. v Alexandrova E.
Conditions
Head to head
5–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-06 | Wuhan | QF | hard | Jessica Pegula | 2-6 6-0 6-3 |
| 2025-06-22 | Bad Homburg | R16 | grass | Jessica Pegula | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2024-06-17 | Berlin | QF | grass | Jessica Pegula | 7-6(2) 3-6 6-3 |
| 2022-02-21 | Doha | R64 | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2021-06-21 | Bad Homburg | R16 | grass | Katerina Siniakova | 6-3 5-7 6-4 |
| 2019-07-29 | Washington | R32 | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-4 6-3 |