Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys — Berlin Quarter-final

Berlin · WTA · Quarter-final

USA

Jessica Pegula

#4WTA

2086ELO

1873Grass ELO

$2.7MYTD

$25MCAREER

32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWWWLWWW

—

Sets

Friday, 19 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

USA

Madison Keys

#28WTA

1957ELO

1777Grass ELO

$990kYTD

$24MCAREER

31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWWLWWW

Pegula J.

Keys M.

Jessica Pegula faces Madison Keys in the Berlin quarter-final on grass. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #4, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage. They have met 4 times, the series level at 2–2, though this is their first meeting on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC

Pegula J.77%

Keys M.23%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Jessica Pegula dropped just 6 games past Katerina Siniakova.
Last match: Madison Keys edged Karolina Muchova in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 2–2; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Australian Open 2026.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Pegula J.

7.1

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Keys M.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.2+96 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.8Grass Elo 1777

6.1Overall Elo 2086

ELO gap

3.9Overall Elo 1957

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

6.56 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.56 of last 10 on grass

Context

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the R32 here last year

5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Pegula J.Cooling

Keys M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season

Pegula J.Keys M.

1st serve in·Even

63%

66%

1st serve points won·Even

71%

67%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

47%

Service points won·Even

63%

60%

Return points won·Even

44%

45%

Break points saved·Even

62%

65%

Aces / match·Slight edge

4.8

4.0

Double faults / match·Clear edge

1.8

2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Pegula J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Pegula J.Keys M.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Even

100

Tiebreaks·Slight edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Pegula J.Keys M.

Freshness·Even

Pegula J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Keys M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

29°COvercast

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

2–2

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-01-19	Australian Open	R16	hard	Jessica Pegula	6-3 6-4
2025-01-06	Adelaide	F	hard	Madison Keys	6-3 4-6 6-1
2023-08-28	US Open	R16	hard	Madison Keys	6-1 6-3
2022-10-10	San Diego	QF	hard	Jessica Pegula	6-4 7-5

View full head-to-head →