Madison Keys vs Jessica Pegula — Adelaide Final

Adelaide · WTA · Final
USA
Madison Keys
#19WTA
1948ELO
1901Hard ELO
$657kYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 January 2025
hard
USA
Jessica Pegula
[1]
#5WTA
2103ELO
2061Hard ELO
$2.6MYTD
$24MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWW

Madison Keys defeated Jessica Pegula 6-3 4-6 6-1 in the Adelaide final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's semi-final. Madison Keys narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Madison Keys came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–3 4–6 6–1.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Keys M.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Pegula J.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1901
Surface ELO
6.9+160 Hard Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1948
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 2103
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.4
Surface form
4.4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.3
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
6.3
Country comfort
6.3
Context
5.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Keys M.
6462
Pegula J.
3611

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
1.12
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 58%

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardJessica Pegula6-3 6-4
2023-08-28US OpenR16hardMadison Keys6-1 6-3
2022-10-10San DiegoQFhardJessica Pegula6-4 7-5
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form
Keys M.Pegula J.
65%1st serve in+1%64%
66%1st serve points won+5%71%
46%2nd serve points won+6%52%
59%Service points won+5%64%
44%Return points won44%
62%Break points saved+2%64%
3.9Aces / match+1.15
3.5Double faults / match+1.71.8

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

Final
Keys M.
Pegula J.[1]
6-34-66-1
Semi-finals
Keys M.
Samsonova L.
5-77-53-0
Pegula J.[1]
Putintseva Y.
7-646-3
Quarter-finals
Keys M.
Kasatkina D.[3]
6-16-3
Putintseva Y.
Shnaider D.[6]
7-636-796-4
Pegula J.[1]
Krueger A.
6-42-0
Samsonova L.
Navarro E.[2]
6-46-4
R16
Kasatkina D.[3]
Jones E.
7-56-3
Keys M.
Ostapenko J.[8]
3-66-46-3
Samsonova L.
Bencic B.
7-634-66-4
Shnaider D.[6]
Vondrousova M.
4-61-1
Pegula J.[1]
Sakkari M.
6-46-1
Krueger A.
Badosa P.[5]
7-646-746-2
Putintseva Y.
Jabeur O.
6-26-4
Navarro E.[2]
Alexandrova E.
7-646-4
R32
Krueger A.
Kostyuk M.
4-66-26-2
Sakkari M.
Noskova L.
6-36-3
Bencic B.
Kalinskaya A.[7]
6-21-0
Putintseva Y.
Vekic D.
6-26-3
Vondrousova M.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-46-746-2
Keys M.
Haddad Maia B.
6-26-1
Badosa P.[5]
Stearns P.
6-756-37-5
Jabeur O.
Collins D.[4]
7-666-2
Alexandrova E.
Fernandez L.
6-43-66-2
Jones E.
Wang X.
6-46-0
Kasatkina D.[3]
Gadecki O.
6-26-3
Ostapenko J.[8]
Frech M.
4-66-16-1
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.
1-66-46-1
Shnaider D.[6]
Siniakova K.
6-30-66-0