Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys — San Diego Quarter-final

San Diego · WTA · Quarter-final
Jessica Pegula
USA4
Jessica Pegula
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 10 October 2022
hard
Madison Keys
USA
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Pegula J.
6-4 7-5
Keys M.
Pegula J.
672
Keys M.
450

Jessica Pegula defeated Madison Keys 6-4 7-5 in the San Diego quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4. Jessica Pegula extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

2–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-19BerlinQFgrassJessica Pegula7.7-6.5 7.10-6.8
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardJessica Pegula6-3 6-4
2025-01-06AdelaideFhardMadison Keys6-3 4-6 6-1
2023-08-28US OpenR16hardMadison Keys6-1 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Keys M.
68
Serve
36
73
Return
29

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Keys M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.0
4.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Even
96
94
Break points saved·Even
96
96
Break points won·Slight edge
99
90
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
Keys M.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.9+138 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Hard Elo 1920
6.8Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1987
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.0
Surface form
4.9
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.9
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Keys M.
Freshness·Slight edge
76
82

Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Keys M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast

Draw

Final
Swiatek I.[1]
Vekic D.
6-33-66-0
Semi-finals
Vekic D.
Collins D.
6-44-67-62
Swiatek I.[1]
Pegula J.[4]
4-66-26-2
Quarter-finals
Vekic D.
Sabalenka A.[3]
6-46-756-1
Swiatek I.[1]
Gauff C.[6]
6-06-3
Pegula J.[4]
Keys M.
6-47-5
Collins D.
Badosa P.[2]
7-656-4
R16
Keys M.
Kasatkina D.[8]
6-46-3
Swiatek I.[1]
Zheng Q.
6-44-66-1
Badosa P.[2]
Chirico L.
6-06-3
Gauff C.[6]
Andreescu B.
6-44-66-3
Vekic D.
Pliskova K.
6-36-2
Sabalenka A.[3]
Stephens S.
1-66-36-2
Pegula J.[4]
Vandeweghe C.
6-36-1
Collins D.
Trevisan M.
6-26-4
R32
Zheng Q.
Muguruza G.
5-0
Pliskova K.
Dolehide C.
6-36-4
Stephens S.
Teichmann J.
6-17-62
Kasatkina D.[8]
Fernandez L.
6-26-2
Trevisan M.
Osorio C.
6-36-4
Gauff C.[6]
Montgomery R.
6-36-3
Andreescu B.
Samsonova L.
7-614-66-2
Vandeweghe C.
Kenin S.
6-11-66-4
Vekic D.
Sakkari M.[5]
7-636-1
Collins D.
Garcia C.[7]
6-27-64
Chirico L.
Riske Amritraj A.
1-67-57-65
Keys M.
Perez E.
6-16-4