Elena Rybakina vs Jessica PegulaBJK Cup Finals Round Robin

BJK Cup Finals · WTA · Round Robin
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 19 September 2025
hard
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Rybakina E.
6-4 6-1
Pegula J.
Rybakina E.
662
Pegula J.
410

Elena Rybakina defeated Jessica Pegula 6-4 6-1 in the BJK Cup Finals round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 5–3. Elena Rybakina extended the head-to-head to 6–3.

Key context

Head to head

53
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiQFhardElena Rybakina2-6 6-3 6-4
2026-03-04Indian WellsQFhardElena Rybakina6-1 7-6(4)
2026-01-19Australian OpenSFhardElena Rybakina6-3 7-6(7)
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsSFhardElena Rybakina4-6 6-4 6-3
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula7-5 6-2
2023-03-20MiamiSFhardElena Rybakina7-6(3) 6-4
2022-10-17Guadalajara 2R32hardJessica Pegula2-6 6-3 7-6(8)
2022-03-21MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakina E.serving82% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Pegula J.serving82% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rybakina E.Pegula J.
100
Serve
68
34
Return
73

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.0
3.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (97 vs 97). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
92
96
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Even
96
99
Deciding sets·Even
97
100
Tiebreaks·Even
93
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 43 days (−0.7)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 43 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
6.0+52 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Hard Elo 2058
6.0Overall Elo 2122
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 2097
3.3
H2H
6.7
8.1
Surface form
5.8
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
93
83

Rybakina E.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Pegula J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast