Jessica Pegula vs Elena RybakinaGuadalajara 2 Round of 32

Guadalajara 2 · WTA · Round of 32
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 October 2022
hard
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Pegula J.
2-6 6-3 7-6
Rybakina E.
Pegula J.
267102
Rybakina E.
63681

Jessica Pegula defeated Elena Rybakina 2-6 6-3 7-6 in the Guadalajara 2 round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 6–2. Jessica Pegula narrowed the head-to-head to 6–3.

Key context

Head to head

26
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiQFhardElena Rybakina2-6 6-3 6-4
2026-03-04Indian WellsQFhardElena Rybakina6-1 7-6(4)
2026-01-19Australian OpenSFhardElena Rybakina6-3 7-6(7)
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsSFhardElena Rybakina4-6 6-4 6-3
2025-09-19BJK Cup FinalsRRhardElena Rybakina6-4 6-1
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula7-5 6-2
2023-03-20MiamiSFhardElena Rybakina7-6(3) 6-4
2022-03-21MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Rybakina E.
68
Serve
100
73
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.0
6.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
96
92
Break points saved·Even
96
98
Break points won·Even
99
96
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 2058
Surface ELO
6.0+52 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 2122
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.0
Surface form
6.8
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.1
Minutes 14d
4.5
7.0
3-set count
0.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
79
92

Pegula J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast

Draw