Alexander Bublik vs Jan Lennard StruffRoland Garros Round of 128

Roland Garros · ATP · Round of 128
#11ATP
1889ELO
1822Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLW
1 — 3
Sets
Tuesday, 26 May 2026 ·
clay
Court 14 · 3rd on
#41ATP
1694ELO
1659Clay ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWL
Bublik A.
5-7 7-6 4-6 5-7
Struff J.
Bublik A.
578451
Struff J.
766673

Jan Lennard Struff defeated Alexander Bublik 7-5 6-7 6-4 7-5 in the Roland Garros round of 128 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alexander Bublik came in ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 4–3, defending last year's quarter-final. Jan Lennard Struff narrowed the head-to-head to 4–4.

Key context

Head to head

43
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-10StuttgartR16grassAlexander Bublik6.3-7.7 6-3 2-6
2026-02-23DubaiR32hardAlexander Bublik6-3 6-4
2026-02-09RotterdamR16hardAlexander Bublik7-6(2) 4-6 6-3
2024-05-27Roland GarrosR64clayJan Lennard Struff6-2 6-2 6-3
2023-06-19HalleR16grassAlexander Bublik6-3 6-7(4) 6-3
2021-10-25St. PetersburgR16carpetJan Lennard Struff6-4 6-3
2018-04-23BudapestR16clayJan Lennard Struff6-1 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Struff J.

Struff J.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Bublik A.Struff J.
55
Serve
51
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
67%
64%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
9.8
7.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
88
61
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
67
21
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
68
Tiebreaks·Even
96
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.5+199 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Clay Elo 1659
7.9Overall Elo 1920
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1688
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.14 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.7Won 62% in FRA (58)
Country comfort
5.2Won 53% in FRA (62)
Context
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
74
64

Bublik A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Struff J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
33°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 28%
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Bublik A.[9]
Struff J.
5-77-664-65-7