Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev — Hong Kong Semi-final

Hong Kong · ATP · Semi-final
ITA
Lorenzo Musetti
[1]
#11ATP
1969ELO
1904Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 5 January 2026
hard
RUS
Andrey Rublev
[3]
#13ATP
1905ELO
1850Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$33MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLL

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Andrey Rublev 6-7 7-5 6-4 in the Hong Kong semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Lorenzo Musetti came in ranked #11. Lorenzo Musetti claimed a first win over Andrey Rublev in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Musetti L.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 57 days (−0.7)
Rublev A.
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 70 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.8+54 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Hard Elo 1850
6.0Overall Elo 1969
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.4
Surface form
4.3
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Musetti L.
63762
Rublev A.
77541

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-02-24DubaiR32hardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form
Musetti L.Rublev A.
65%1st serve in+4%61%
68%1st serve points won+6%74%
55%2nd serve points won+5%50%
64%Service points won+1%65%
38%Return points won+1%39%
66%Break points saved66%
4.8Aces / match+1.26
2.1Double faults / match+0.52.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

Final
Bublik A.[2]
Musetti L.[1]
7-626-3
Semi-finals
Bublik A.[2]
Giron M.
3-66-46-2
Musetti L.[1]
Rublev A.[3]
6-737-56-4
Quarter-finals
Giron M.
Mmoh M.
6-31-0
Musetti L.[1]
Wong C.
6-46-4
Bublik A.[2]
Shang J.
6-17-62
Rublev A.[3]
Borges N.[8]
6-36-4
R16
Bublik A.[2]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-36-3
Wong C.
Diallo G.[6]
1-67-57-5
Shang J.
Sonego L.[5]
6-36-4
Rublev A.[3]
Wu Y.
3-66-26-1
Mmoh M.
Khachanov K.[4]
7-627-64
Giron M.
Muller A.[7]
6-47-64
Borges N.[8]
Cilic M.
7-56-3
Musetti L.[1]
Etcheverry T.
6-736-26-4
R32
Giron M.
Djere L.
6-26-0
Diallo G.[6]
De Jong J.
6-47-67
Borges N.[8]
Dzumhur D.
6-46-3
Muller A.[7]
Kecmanovic M.
7-56-4
Mmoh M.
Tabilo A.
7-56-4
Wu Y.
Marozsan F.
6-46-2
Wong C.
Navone M.
6-37-5
Etcheverry T.
Royer V.
6-47-5
Shang J.
Comesana F.
6-46-4
Van De Zandschulp B.
Struff J.
6-31-66-1
Cilic M.
Mannarino A.
6-36-2
Sonego L.[5]
Sakamoto R.
6-27-64