Flavio Cobolli vs Andrey RublevBeijing Round of 32

Beijing · ATP · Round of 32
#9ATP
1896ELO
1810Hard ELO
$3.1MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 25 September 2025
hard
#16ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Cobolli F.
7-6 6-3
Rublev A.
Cobolli F.
7762
Rublev A.
6330

Flavio Cobolli defeated Andrey Rublev 7-6 6-3 in the Beijing round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Flavio Cobolli came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's quarter-final. Flavio Cobolli extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-18HamburgFclayFlavio Cobolli6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Cobolli F.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Serve advantage — Rublev A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Cobolli F.Rublev A.
20
Serve
55
35
Return
49

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
67%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.1
7.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (84 vs 80). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
76
88
Break points saved·Even
96
100
Break points won·Dominant
35
72
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Even
95
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1810
Surface ELO
5.4+39 Hard Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1896
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1902
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.8
Surface form
5.8
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.1
Minutes 14d
8.9
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Country comfort
5.6
Context
7.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
71
100

Cobolli F.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Rublev A.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 44%