Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 16
Carlos Alcaraz
ESP2
Carlos Alcaraz
#2ATP
2162ELO
2029Grass ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
3 — 1
Sets
Monday, 30 June 2025
grass
Andrey Rublev
RUS12
Andrey Rublev
#13ATP
1902ELO
1784Grass ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Alcaraz C.
6-7 6-3 6-4 6-4
Rublev A.
Alcaraz C.
656663
Rublev A.
773441

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Andrey Rublev 6-7 6-3 6-4 6-4 in the Wimbledon round of 16 on grass. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending the title. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

Head to head

4–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-16DohaSFhardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(3) 6-4
2025-08-07Cincinnati MastersQFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-3 4-6 7-5
2024-11-11Tour FinalsRRhardCarlos Alcaraz6-3 7-6(8)
2024-04-22Madrid MastersQFclayAndrey Rublev4-6 6-3 6-2
2023-11-13Tour FinalsRRhardCarlos Alcaraz7-5 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Alcaraz C.Rublev A.
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
51%
Service points won·Even
68%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
37%
Break points saved·Even
66%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.4
7.5
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (103 vs 80). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Alcaraz C.Rublev A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
88
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Dominant
99
72
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alcaraz C.
9.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Rublev A.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.3+245 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.7Grass Elo 1784
9.8Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.2Overall Elo 1902
5.0
H2H
5.0
10.0
Surface form
5.1
10.020-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.0
Minutes 14d
7.6
4.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
7.4
Country comfort
6.0
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Alcaraz C.Rublev A.
Freshness·
—
94

Rublev A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 43%
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Alcaraz C.[2]
4-66-46-46-4
Semi-finals
Alcaraz C.[2]
Fritz T.[6]
6-45-76-37-66
Sinner J.[1]
Djokovic N.[7]
6-36-36-4
Quarter-finals
Fritz T.[6]
Khachanov K.[19]
6-36-41-67-64
Djokovic N.[7]
Cobolli F.[9]
6-766-27-56-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Norrie C.[26]
6-26-36-3
Sinner J.[1]
Shelton B.[4]
7-626-46-4
R16
Cobolli F.[9]
Cilic M.
6-46-46-747-63
Norrie C.[26]
Jarry N.
6-37-646-776-756-3
Alcaraz C.[2]
Rublev A.[12]
6-756-36-46-4
Khachanov K.[19]
Majchrzak K.
6-46-26-3
Djokovic N.[7]
De Minaur A.[5]
1-66-46-46-4
Shelton B.[4]
Sonego L.
3-66-17-617-5
Sinner J.[1]
Dimitrov G.
3-65-72-2
Fritz T.[6]
Thompson J.
6-13-0
R32
Sinner J.[1]
Martinez P.[19]
6-16-36-1
De Minaur A.[5]
Holmgren A.[24]
6-47-656-3
Norrie C.[26]
Bellucci M.
7-656-46-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Borges N.
7-664-64-66-37-68
Fritz T.[6]
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
6-46-36-756-1
Dimitrov G.
Ofner S.
6-36-47-60
Thompson J.
Darderi L.[14]
6-46-43-66-3
Shelton B.[4]
Fucsovics M.
6-37-646-2
Sonego L.
Nakashima B.[28]
6-757-687-623-67-63
Majchrzak K.
Rinderknech A.[25]
6-37-647-66
Jarry N.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-36-43-67-64
Djokovic N.[7]
Kecmanovic M.
6-36-06-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Struff J.
6-13-66-36-4
Cilic M.
Munar J.
6-33-66-26-4
Rublev A.[12]
Mannarino A.
7-56-26-3
Cobolli F.[9]
Mensik J.[15]
6-26-46-2
R64
Holmgren A.[24]
Machac T.[21]
7-656-786-757-57-65
Sonego L.
Basilashvili N.[6]
6-16-36-737-64
Martinez P.[19]
Navone M.
7-57-57-66
Alcaraz C.[2]
Tarvet O.
6-16-46-4
Khachanov K.[19]
Mochizuki S.
1-67-674-66-36-4
Borges N.
Harris B.
6-36-47-67
Shelton B.[4]
Hijikata R.
6-27-56-4
Bellucci M.
Lehecka J.[13]
7-646-17-5
Djokovic N.[7]
Evans D.
6-36-26-0
Rublev A.[12]
Harris L.
6-716-47-656-3
Rinderknech A.[25]
Garin C.
3-66-37-634-66-3
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-14-66-37-65
Struff J.
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
3-67-696-36-4
Norrie C.[26]
Tiafoe F.[17]
4-66-46-37-5
Darderi L.[14]
Fery A.
6-46-36-3
Jarry N.
Tien L.[16]
6-26-26-3
Ofner S.
Paul T.[21]
1-67-56-47-5
Cobolli F.[9]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-17-666-2
Nakashima B.[28]
Opelka R.
7-56-26-766-3
Fucsovics M.
Monfils G.
6-41-64-67-656-4
Cilic M.
Draper J.[4]
6-46-31-66-4
Mannarino A.
Royer V.
6-46-45-77-61
Thompson J.
Bonzi B.
7-56-724-66-26-4
Munar J.
Marozsan F.
6-26-37-69
Kecmanovic M.
De Jong J.
1-66-36-26-4
Sinner J.[1]
Vukic A.
6-16-16-3
Fritz T.[6]
Diallo G.
3-66-37-604-66-3
De Minaur A.[5]
Cazaux A.
4-66-26-46-0
Majchrzak K.
Quinn E.
6-16-46-3
Fonseca J.[24]
Brooksby J.
6-45-76-26-4
Mensik J.[15]
Giron M.
6-43-66-47-64
Dimitrov G.
Moutet C.
7-54-67-57-5
R128
Basilashvili N.[6]
Musetti L.[7]
6-24-67-56-1
Moutet C.
Comesana F.[1]
6-46-46-2
Martinez P.[19]
Loffhagen G.
2-66-26-46-2
Holmgren A.[24]
Halys Q.
7-646-36-4
Quinn E.
Searle H.
4-66-27-6116-2
Tarvet O.
Riedi L.
6-46-46-4
Harris B.
Lajovic D.
6-36-26-4
Sonego L.
Faria J.
6-36-46-2
Mensik J.[15]
Gaston H.
6-14-66-26-2
Darderi L.[14]
Safiullin R.
7-631-66-726-36-1
Khachanov K.[19]
Mcdonald M.
7-56-46-4
Mochizuki S.
Zeppieri G.
2-63-66-37-667-5
Nakashima B.[28]
Yunchaokete B.[3]
6-44-67-616-4
Paul T.[21]
Monday J.
6-46-46-2
Djokovic N.[7]
Muller A.
6-16-776-26-2
Tiafoe F.[17]
Moller E.
6-36-46-2
Tien L.[16]
Basavareddy N.
7-656-36-2
Bonzi B.
Medvedev D.[8]
7-623-67-636-2
Shelton B.[4]
Bolt A.
6-47-617-64
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Duckworth J.
6-23-66-726-46-4
Rinderknech A.[25]
Zverev A.[2]
7-636-786-36-756-4
Van De Zandschulp B.
Arnaldi M.[32]
7-647-656-4
Rublev A.[12]
Djere L.
6-07-656-797-66
Borges N.
Cerundolo F.[18]
4-66-37-656-0
Monfils G.
Humbert U.[27]
6-43-66-757-56-2
Pinnington Jones J.
Etcheverry T.[29]
7-646-37-5
Norrie C.[26]
Bautista Agut R.
6-33-66-47-63
De Minaur A.[5]
Carballes Baena R.
6-26-27-62
Lehecka J.[13]
Dellien H.
4-66-26-27-60
Dimitrov G.
Nishioka Y.
6-26-36-4
Fery A.
Popyrin A.[20]
6-46-14-66-4
Fonseca J.[24]
Fearnley J.
6-46-17-65
Cobolli F.[9]
Zhukayev B.
6-37-676-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Holt B.
6-26-47-5
Ofner S.
Medjedovic H.
7-683-1
Draper J.[4]
Baez S.
6-26-22-1
Royer V.
Tsitsipas S.[24]
6-36-2
Harris L.
Bergs Z.
7-677-626-756-2
Opelka R.
Shevchenko A.
6-37-57-64
Giron M.
Ugo Carabelli C.
7-667-646-3
De Jong J.
Eubanks C.
6-36-756-776-37-63
Diallo G.
Altmaier D.
6-16-26-4
Munar J.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-64-67-656-2
Garin C.
Rodesch C.
7-686-46-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Fognini F.
7-56-757-52-66-1
Struff J.
Misolic F.
6-25-76-36-3
Jarry N.
Rune H.[8]
4-64-67-56-36-4
Hijikata R.
Goffin D.
6-36-16-1
Machac T.[21]
Dzumhur D.
6-36-26-4
Fucsovics M.
Kovacevic A.
6-36-756-15-76-4
Navone M.
Shapovalov D.[27]
3-66-46-16-4
Brooksby J.
Griekspoor T.[31]
6-27-56-3
Cazaux A.
Walton A.
6-37-664-66-756-1
Sinner J.[1]
Nardi L.
6-46-36-0
Majchrzak K.
Berrettini M.[32]
4-66-26-45-76-3
Thompson J.
Kopriva V.
3-64-66-37-616-1
Evans D.
Clarke J.
6-17-56-2
Vukic A.
Tseng C.
6-36-44-67-65
Marozsan F.
Mccabe J.
6-16-46-3
Bellucci M.
Crawford O.
6-726-36-46-4
Mannarino A.
Oconnell C.
6-26-46-3
Kecmanovic M.
Michelsen A.[30]
6-23-66-33-67-66
Cilic M.
Collignon R.
6-36-46-3
Fritz T.[6]
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-766-786-47-666-4