Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev — Cincinnati Masters Quarter-final

Cincinnati Masters · ATP · Quarter-final
Carlos Alcaraz
ESP2
Carlos Alcaraz
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 7 August 2025
hard
Andrey Rublev
RUS9
Andrey Rublev
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Alcaraz C.
6-3 4-6 7-5
Rublev A.
Alcaraz C.
6472
Rublev A.
3651

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Andrey Rublev 6-3 4-6 7-5 in the Cincinnati Masters quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending last year's round of 32. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Carlos Alcaraz closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 7–5.

Head to head

4–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-16DohaSFhardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(3) 6-4
2025-06-30WimbledonR16grassCarlos Alcaraz6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 6-4
2024-11-11Tour FinalsRRhardCarlos Alcaraz6-3 7-6(8)
2024-04-22Madrid MastersQFclayAndrey Rublev4-6 6-3 6-2
2023-11-13Tour FinalsRRhardCarlos Alcaraz7-5 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Rublev A.
74
Serve
55
95
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Alcaraz C.Rublev A.
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
51%
Service points won·Even
68%
67%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
37%
Break points saved·Even
67%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.5
7.5
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (103 vs 80). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Alcaraz C.Rublev A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
89
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Dominant
99
72
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alcaraz C.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 38 days (−0.7)
Rublev A.
3.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
9.5+240 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.5Hard Elo 1849
9.8Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.2Overall Elo 1902
10.0
H2H
0.0
6.4
Surface form
5.9
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
5.4
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
6.7
Country comfort
5.5
7.0
Surface transition
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Alcaraz C.Rublev A.
Freshness·
—
93

Rublev A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 67%
Final
Alcaraz C.[2]
Sinner J.[1]
5-0
Semi-finals
Sinner J.[1]
Atmane T.
7-646-2
Alcaraz C.[2]
Zverev A.[3]
6-46-3
Quarter-finals
Sinner J.[1]
Auger Aliassime F.[23]
6-06-2
Alcaraz C.[2]
Rublev A.[9]
6-34-67-5
Atmane T.
Rune H.[7]
6-26-3
Zverev A.[3]
Shelton B.[5]
6-26-2
R16
Zverev A.[3]
Khachanov K.[14]
7-53-0
Rune H.[7]
Tiafoe F.[10]
6-43-1
Shelton B.[5]
Lehecka J.[22]
6-46-4
Rublev A.[9]
Comesana F.
6-26-3
Atmane T.
Fritz T.[4]
3-67-56-3
Auger Aliassime F.[23]
Bonzi B.
6-46-3
Alcaraz C.[2]
Nardi L.
6-16-4
Sinner J.[1]
Mannarino A.
6-47-64
R32
Auger Aliassime F.[23]
Rinderknech A.
7-644-2
Nardi L.
Mensik J.[16]
6-22-1
Lehecka J.[22]
Walton A.
7-657-63
Rune H.[7]
Michelsen A.[28]
7-646-3
Fritz T.[4]
Sonego L.[31]
7-647-5
Atmane T.
Fonseca J.
6-36-4
Rublev A.[9]
Popyrin A.[21]
6-757-657-5
Comesana F.
Opelka R.
6-746-47-5
Mannarino A.
Paul T.[13]
5-76-36-4
Zverev A.[3]
Nakashima B.[27]
6-46-4
Bonzi B.
Tsitsipas S.[25]
6-746-36-4
Sinner J.[1]
Diallo G.[30]
6-27-66
Khachanov K.[14]
Brooksby J.
6-36-3
Tiafoe F.[10]
Humbert U.[20]
6-46-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Medjedovic H.
6-46-4
Shelton B.[5]
Bautista Agut R.
7-636-3
R64
Fonseca J.
Davidovich Fokina A.[17]
6-745-4
Sinner J.[1]
Galan D.
6-16-1
Shelton B.[5]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-33-1
Comesana F.
Darderi L.[29]
6-43-1
Popyrin A.[21]
Landaluce M.
7-636-3
Atmane T.
Cobolli F.[15]
6-43-67-65
Rinderknech A.
Ruud C.[11]
6-756-46-2
Nakashima B.[27]
Blockx A.
4-66-37-65
Humbert U.[20]
Wong C.
6-36-4
Mensik J.[16]
Quinn E.
6-46-2
Lehecka J.[22]
Boyer T.
4-66-16-4
Rublev A.[9]
Tien L.
7-646-3
Michelsen A.[28]
Moutet C.
3-66-36-4
Mannarino A.
Machac T.[19]
6-36-3
Sonego L.[31]
Bergs Z.
6-37-64
Auger Aliassime F.[23]
Etcheverry T.
6-27-63
Diallo G.[30]
Baez S.
7-56-4
Bautista Agut R.
Norrie C.[32]
6-46-3
Bonzi B.
Musetti L.[8]
5-76-47-64
Paul T.[13]
Martinez P.
6-26-2
Walton A.
Medvedev D.[12]
6-706-46-1
Alcaraz C.[2]
Dzumhur D.
6-12-66-3
Tiafoe F.[10]
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-3
Fritz T.[4]
Nava E.
6-46-4
Tsitsipas S.[25]
Marozsan F.
7-636-2
Medjedovic H.
Griekspoor T.[26]
6-47-63
Nardi L.
Shapovalov D.[24]
6-756-36-4
Brooksby J.
Cazaux A.
7-56-1
Opelka R.
De Minaur A.[6]
7-666-4
Khachanov K.[14]
Royer V.
6-47-66
Rune H.[7]
Safiullin R.
7-57-65
Zverev A.[3]
Basavareddy N.
6-36-3
R128
Dzumhur D.
Bellucci M.
7-677-65
Bautista Agut R.
Altmaier D.
7-657-61
Brooksby J.
Muller A.
7-625-76-1
Bergs Z.
Fearnley J.
6-16-4
Fonseca J.
Yunchaokete B.
4-66-27-5
Rinderknech A.
Borges N.
6-36-3
Medjedovic H.
Kovacevic A.
6-26-3
Carballes Baena R.
Gaston H.
6-45-76-3
Mannarino A.
Thompson J.
6-26-2
Blockx A.
Giron M.
6-23-66-3
Ugo Carabelli C.
Nishikori K.
7-56-3
Etcheverry T.
Shang J.
6-757-646-4
Safiullin R.
Tabilo A.
6-36-3
Moutet C.
Mcdonald M.
7-56-3
Landaluce M.
Kypson P.
3-66-36-2
Boyer T.
Holt B.
6-37-63
Comesana F.
Munar J.
6-46-4
Atmane T.
Nishioka Y.
6-26-2
Tien L.
Riedi L.
6-36-4
Walton A.
Navone M.
4-67-636-1
Bonzi B.
Arnaldi M.
6-716-36-4
Galan D.
Kopriva V.
6-26-4
Basavareddy N.
Vukic A.
7-657-5
Marozsan F.
Smith C.
6-14-66-4
Opelka R.
Dellien H.
7-57-63
Nava E.
Coric B.
6-37-5
Quinn E.
Kecmanovic M.
7-656-4
Martinez P.
Jarry N.
1-66-46-3
Baez S.
Goffin D.
6-16-3
Royer V.
Ofner S.
5-76-36-3
Nardi L.
Tirante T.
6-47-65
Wong C.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-36-2