Upset Audit

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 in London, United Kingdom, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Mochizuki S.def.Jodar R.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 326-1 6-7 4-6 4-6

Pre-match WP: Mochizuki S. 5% · Jodar R. 95%

95

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Struff J.def.Medvedev D.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 327-6 7-6 7-5

Pre-match WP: Struff J. 11% · Medvedev D. 89%

89

Umpiry
Surprise Score

3

Mochizuki S.def.Quinn E.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 646-2 7-6 7-5

Pre-match WP: Mochizuki S. 11% · Quinn E. 89%

89

Umpiry
Surprise Score

4

Zheng M.def.Norrie C.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1286-7 6-2 6-7 6-3 7-6

Pre-match WP: Zheng M. 12% · Norrie C. 88%

88

Umpiry
Surprise Score

5

Mejia N.def.Vallejo A.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1286-4 4-6 5-7 6-7

Pre-match WP: Mejia N. 12% · Vallejo A. 88%

88

Umpiry
Surprise Score

6

Fearnley J.def.Michelsen A.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1286-3 6-4 2-6 3-6 2-6

Pre-match WP: Fearnley J. 14% · Michelsen A. 86%

86

Umpiry
Surprise Score

7

Virtanen O.def.Shelton B.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1286-4 3-6 6-7 6-2 7-6

Pre-match WP: Virtanen O. 14% · Shelton B. 86%

86

Umpiry
Surprise Score

8

Struff J.def.Nakashima B.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 646-4 6-7 6-7 7-6 6-7

Pre-match WP: Struff J. 16% · Nakashima B. 84%

84

Umpiry
Surprise Score

9

Safiullin R.def.Rublev A.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1284-6 7-6 6-3 3-6 6-7

Pre-match WP: Safiullin R. 17% · Rublev A. 83%

83

Umpiry
Surprise Score

10

Hurkacz H.def.Paul T.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 324-6 7-6 7-5 6-2

Pre-match WP: Hurkacz H. 17% · Paul T. 83%

83

Umpiry
Surprise Score

11

Duckworth J.def.Griekspoor T.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1284-6 6-4 5-7 4-6

Pre-match WP: Duckworth J. 18% · Griekspoor T. 82%

82

Umpiry
Surprise Score

12

Safiullin R.def.Fonseca J.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 326-3 6-3 6-3

Pre-match WP: Safiullin R. 18% · Fonseca J. 82%

82

Umpiry
Surprise Score

13

Berrettini M.def.Fils A.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 646-4 7-5 3-6 6-3

Pre-match WP: Berrettini M. 19% · Fils A. 81%

81

Umpiry
Surprise Score

14

Fery A.def.Cobolli F.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Quarterfinal4-6 6-7 0-6

Pre-match WP: Fery A. 20% · Cobolli F. 80%

80

Umpiry
Surprise Score

15

Munar J.def.Cerundolo F.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1286-1 6-4 6-3

Pre-match WP: Munar J. 20% · Cerundolo F. 80%

80

Umpiry
Surprise Score

16

Bergs Z.def.Humbert U.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1282-6 5-7 6-4 6-3 3-6

Pre-match WP: Bergs Z. 21% · Humbert U. 79%

79

Umpiry
Surprise Score

17

Dimitrov G.def.Mensik J.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 646-7 6-4 5-7 3-6

Pre-match WP: Dimitrov G. 21% · Mensik J. 79%

79

Umpiry
Surprise Score

18

Hurkacz H.def.Ruud C.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1284-6 2-6 6-7

Pre-match WP: Hurkacz H. 26% · Ruud C. 74%

74

Umpiry
Surprise Score

19

Fucsovics M.def.Tien L.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 646-7 6-4 7-6 6-3

Pre-match WP: Fucsovics M. 26% · Tien L. 74%

74

Umpiry
Surprise Score

20

Dimitrov G.def.Berrettini M.

ATP Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 326-3 6-4 3-6 5-7 6-3

Pre-match WP: Dimitrov G. 27% · Berrettini M. 73%

73

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.