Upset Audit
ATP Tour US Open 2026: the biggest upsets
The most surprising results of ATP Tour US Open 2026 in New York, United States, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.
1
Gorzny S.def.
Collignon R.
Gorzny S.def.Collignon R.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1283-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 7-6(9)
Pre-match WP: Gorzny S. 8% · Collignon R. 92%
92
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
2
Navone M.def.
Djokovic N.
Navone M.def.Djokovic N.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1287-6(5) 5-7 4-6 6-2 6-1
Pre-match WP: Navone M. 12% · Djokovic N. 88%
88
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
3Shelton B.def.
Alcaraz C.
Shelton B.def.Alcaraz C.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Quarterfinal6-7(5) 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6(7)
Pre-match WP: Shelton B. 15% · Alcaraz C. 85%
85
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
4
Sweeny D.def.
Musetti L.
Sweeny D.def.Musetti L.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 643-6 6-1 6-2 6-2
Pre-match WP: Sweeny D. 16% · Musetti L. 84%
84
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
5
Khachanov K.def.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Khachanov K.def.Auger-Aliassime F.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 646-7(5) 6-3 6-2 6-2
Pre-match WP: Khachanov K. 21% · Auger-Aliassime F. 79%
79
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
6Trungelliti M.def.
Shang J.
Trungelliti M.def.Shang J.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1280-6 7-6(5) 1-6 6-3 6-4
Pre-match WP: Trungelliti M. 24% · Shang J. 76%
76
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
7
Van De Zandschulp B.def.De Minaur A.
Van De Zandschulp B.def.De Minaur A.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 646-4 7-5 6-2
Pre-match WP: Van De Zandschulp B. 25% · De Minaur A. 75%
75
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
8
Tsitsipas S.def.
Fils A.
Tsitsipas S.def.Fils A.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1284-6 7-6(3) 6-1 6-4
Pre-match WP: Tsitsipas S. 25% · Fils A. 75%
75
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
9Schoolkate T.def.Basavareddy N.
Schoolkate T.def.Basavareddy N.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1287-6(4) 3-6 6-3 6-4
Pre-match WP: Schoolkate T. 26% · Basavareddy N. 74%
74
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
10Mannarino A.def.Tirante T.
Mannarino A.def.Tirante T.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1284-6 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3
Pre-match WP: Mannarino A. 26% · Tirante T. 74%
74
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
11Navone M.def.Berrettini M.
Navone M.def.Berrettini M.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 643-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)
Pre-match WP: Navone M. 27% · Berrettini M. 73%
73
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
12
Samuel T.def.
Machac T.
Samuel T.def.Machac T.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1286-2 6-3 6-2
Pre-match WP: Samuel T. 28% · Machac T. 72%
72
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
13Khachanov K.def.Tien L.
Khachanov K.def.Tien L.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 167-5 4-6 6-7(6) 6-1 6-4
Pre-match WP: Khachanov K. 28% · Tien L. 72%
72
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
14Cerundolo F.def.Fritz T.
Cerundolo F.def.Fritz T.ATP Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 323-6 4-6 6-3 6-4 6-4
Pre-match WP: Cerundolo F. 29% · Fritz T. 71%
71
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.