Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac — US Open Round of 128
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Samuel T.
Toby Samuel faces Tomas Machac in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Tomas Machac is the paper favourite — ranked #58, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage — but Toby Samuel rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Machac T. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Toby Samuel 81 games in 14 days, Tomas Machac 21.
- Last match: Toby Samuel advanced when Cristian Garin retired.
- Stage: Tomas Machac defends last year's round of 16.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.