Dane Sweeny vs Lorenzo Musetti — US Open Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Round of 64
AUSWC
Dane Sweeny
#122ATP
1460ELO
1444Hard ELO
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLWLLWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
hard
Lorenzo Musetti
ITA13
Lorenzo Musetti
#14ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLWLWW
Sweeny D.
vs
Musetti L.

Dane Sweeny faces Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Lorenzo Musetti holds the paper edge — ranked #14, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 360-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Sweeny D.16%
Musetti L.84%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Musetti L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sweeny D.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Musetti L.
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.5Hard Elo 1444
Surface ELO
9.5+360 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1460
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1869
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.42 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Sweeny D.Musetti L.
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Even
63%
67%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.3
4.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sweeny D.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Musetti L.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sweeny D.

Serve advantage — Musetti L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sweeny D.Musetti L.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
45
89
Break points saved·Dominant
69
94
Break points won·Dominant
11
81
Deciding sets·Dominant
68
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
86
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sweeny D.Musetti L.
Freshness·Slight edge
83
78

Sweeny D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Musetti L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw