Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova | WTA Finals Round Robin

UMPIRY

WTA FinalsRound RobinHardThu 12 Nov · ~13:30Indian Wells Tennis Garden · After 1 match

Jessica Pegula(5)WTA #5 · USA46%

VSToss-up

Linda Noskova(8)WTA #8 · CZE54%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Pegula J.6.8/10

Slight advantage

Noskova L.6.8/10

Slight advantage

Why

Surface+145 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Pegula J.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 2096Against the prediction · Pegula J.

Recent run2-match win streakSupports Noskova L.

Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Noskova L.

This eventReached the semis here last yearAgainst the prediction · Pegula J.

ELO2 190

Hard ELO2 066

Last 106–4

Age32

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $27.6M2026 $5.8M

ELO2 172

Hard ELO1 954

Last 108–2

Age21

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $12.2M2026 $7.6M

Jessica Pegula faces Linda Noskova in the WTA Finals round robin on hard. Jessica Pegula is the paper favourite — ranked #5, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Linda Noskova has won 3 of their 4 previous meetings. Linda Noskova brings the better recent hard form (8 of 10).

Key context

Serve & return: Linda Noskova leads on Serve Rating (86), Jessica Pegula on Return Rating (56).
Last match: Linda Noskova dropped just 6 games past Coco Gauff.
Head-to-head: Linda Noskova leads the head-to-head 3–1, 0–2 on hard. Last met at Berlin 2026.

Common opponents

16 shared · last 12 months

All 16 opponents →

Pegula J. and Noskova L. faced 16 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Pegula J. went 19–7 (73%) against them, Noskova L. 19–10 (66%). Results against comparable opponents are close (6 : 3 better-results split).

19–773%Pegula J. · better vs 6Record vs common opponents19–1066%Noskova L. · better vs 3

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

39–21Sets41–26

298–253Games346–311

4–1Tiebreaks7–6

7–3Deciding sets6–3

vs Sabalenka A.#2L5-7 2-6US Open · hardL6-7(1) 6-3 6-7(7)US Open · hard
vs Gauff C.#4L4-6 7-6(5) 2-6WTA Finals · hardW6-3 6-3WTA Finals · hard
vs Svitolina E.#6W6-2 6-4Dubai · hardL6-7 5-7Stuttgart · clay

Show 13 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Kostyuk M.#10L1-6 4-6Madrid · clayL6-7 0-6Madrid · clay
vs Eala A.#15L6-4 4-6 0-6Washington · hardW6-2 6-4Berlin · grass
vs Cirstea S.#16W6-2 4-6 7-5Cincinnati · hardW2-6 6-3 7-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Keys M.#19WBerlin · grassW6-4 7-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Bencic B.#20W6-3 7-6Indian Wells · hardW6-3 3-6 7-6BJK Cup Qualifiers · hard
vs Anisimova A.#23W6-4 2-6 7-6(4)Cincinnati · hardL1-6 4-6Cincinnati · hard
vs Boulter K.#50W6-4 6-4Madrid · clayW6-3 6-3Cincinnati · hard
vs Frech M.#51W3-6 6-3 6-0Washington · hardW6-7 6-4 6-4Brisbane · hard
vs Tauson C.#58W6-3 2-6 6-4Dubai · hardW7-6(3) 6-2Cincinnati · hard
vs Ruse G.#61W6-3 6-2US Open · hardW6-4 6-1Beijing · hard
vs Zakharova A.#102W6-2 6-1Australian Open · hardW6-4 6-1Rome · clay
vs Bouzas Maneiro J.#104W6-1 6-3Wimbledon · grassW6-3 6-3Indian Wells · hard
vs Gracheva V.#232W6-4 6-0Dubai · hardL2-6 6-2 5-7Doha · hard

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Noskova L. leads 3–1

Full H2H →

Grass: level 1–1 · Hard: Noskova L. leads 2–0

Noskova L.June 2026BerlinGrass4-6 6-4 3-6
Noskova L.September 2025BeijingHard6-3 1-6 7-6
Pegula J.June 2025Bad HomburgGrass6-7(2) 7-5 6-1
Noskova L.February 2025DubaiHard6-3 7-6

Evidence

Pegula J.Noskova L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–48–2

Season win rate77% (51–15)75% (44–15)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21902172

Hard-court ELO20661954

Serve vs returnLast 66 vs 52 matches

1st-serve points won70%73%

Return points won45%41%

Aces / match4.26.9

ClutchLast 66 vs 52 matches

Break points saved58%64%

When it starts

Indian Wells Tennis Garden · After 1 match · Followed by

1Kostyuk M. v Gauff C.Starting at 12:00 PM
2This match: Pegula J. v Noskova L.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Indian Wells Tennis Garden · ~13:30 local

SurfaceHard · medium-fast

Forecast29°C · Clear

Wind16 km/h

Humidity20%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Pegula J.Noskova L.

1Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days2

51Games · 7 days36

2Matches · 14 days2

51Games · 14 days36

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova — WTA Finals Round Robin", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-12/noskova-vs-pegula-wta-finals-rr?utm_source=cite (as of 12 November 2026).