UMPIRY
EN

Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR64HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
51%49%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Musetti L.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Hurkacz H.6.1/10
Even match
Why
Surface+77 Hard Elo edgeSupports Musetti L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1869Supports Musetti L.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardInformative
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Hurkacz H.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO2 089
Hard ELO1 883
Last 107–3
Age24
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $15.6M2026 $1.3M
ELO2 071
Hard ELO1 915
Last 107–3
Age29
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $20.6M2026 $1.8M

Lorenzo Musetti faces Hubert Hurkacz in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 64 on hard. Lorenzo Musetti is the paper favourite — ranked #26, leading the head-to-head 3–2, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage — but Hubert Hurkacz arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on hard to Lorenzo Musetti's 2 of 5.

Key context

Common opponents

12 shared · last 12 months
All 12 opponents →

Musetti L. and Hurkacz H. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Musetti L. went 7–8 (47%) against them, Hurkacz H. 7–6 (54%). Results against comparable opponents are close (3 : 4 better-results split).

7–847%Musetti L. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents7–654%Hurkacz H. · better vs 4
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
19–17Sets19–12
189–185Games162–143
2–4Tiebreaks5–0
2–2Deciding sets2–3
Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Musetti L. leads 3–2
Full H2H →
32

Clay: Musetti L. leads 2–0 · Grass: Hurkacz H. leads 2–0 · Hard: Musetti L. leads 1–0

Evidence

Musetti L.Hurkacz H.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate67% (26–13) (ahead)63% (37–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2089 (ahead)2071
Hard-court ELO18831915 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 39 vs 58 matches
1st-serve points won71%79% (ahead)
Return points won39% (ahead)35%
Aces / match4.114.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 39 vs 58 matches
Break points saved66%71% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast9°C · Partly cloudy
Wind8 km/h
Humidity80%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Musetti L.Hurkacz H.
3Days since last match4 — fresher
3Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
76Games · 7 days59 — fresher
7Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
179Games · 14 days59 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/hurkacz-vs-musetti-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).