UMPIRY

Hubert Hurkacz vs Yi Zhou — Shanghai Masters Round of 32

Shanghai MastersR32HardSun 11 Oct · 12:00
Hubert HurkaczATP #34 · POL88%
VSStrong favourite · Hurkacz H.
Yi ZhouATP #277 · CHN12%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Hurkacz H.
88%12%

Clear edge for Hurkacz H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 8 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Hurkacz H.7.9/10
Dominant favourite
Zhou Y.5.1/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+282 Hard Elo edgeSupports Hurkacz H.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1798Supports Hurkacz H.
This eventReached the R128 here last yearAgainst the prediction · Zhou Y.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Zhou Y.
Recent run2-match win streakBoth players
ELO2 083
Hard ELO1 926
Last 108–2
Age29
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $20.6M2026 $1.8M
ELO1 710
Hard ELO1 633
Last 104–6
Age21
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $465K2026 $126K

Hubert Hurkacz faces Yi Zhou in the Shanghai Masters round of 32 on hard. Hubert Hurkacz holds the paper edge — ranked #34, a roughly 280-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

  • Freshness: Hubert Hurkacz comes in with 1 days of rest and 248 games in 14d, vs Yi Zhou's 1 and 88.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Hubert Hurkacz has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 66 vs 13).
  • Surface form: Hubert Hurkacz 8 of 10, Yi Zhou 4 of 10 on hard recently — Hubert Hurkacz the sharper of late.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Hurkacz H. and Zhou Y. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Hurkacz H. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Zhou Y. 1–0 (100%).

0–10%Hurkacz H. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Zhou Y. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
0–2Sets2–1
10–13Games17–18
0–1Tiebreaks2–0
0–0Deciding sets1–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Hurkacz H.Zhou Y.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate64% (35–20) (ahead)51% (23–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2083 (ahead)1710
Hard-court ELO1926 (ahead)1633
Serve vs returnLast 54 vs 28 matches
1st-serve points won78% (ahead)73%
Return points won35%35%
Aces / match13.9 (ahead)7.3
ClutchLast 54 vs 28 matches
Break points saved71% (ahead)64%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast25°C · Partly cloudy
Wind9 km/h
Humidity55%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Hurkacz H.Zhou Y.
1Days since last match1
4Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
77Games · 7 days67 — fresher
10Matches · 14 days3 — fresher
248Games · 14 days88 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Hubert Hurkacz vs Yi Zhou — Shanghai Masters Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-11/hurkacz-vs-zhou-shanghai-masters-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 11 October 2026).