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Marie Bouzkova vs Iga Swiatek — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 16

Ningbo Open - NingboR16HardWed 21 Oct · 10:00
VSStrong favourite · Swiatek I.
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Swiatek I.
20%80%

Clear edge for Swiatek I. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Bouzkova M.5.3/10
Clear underdog
Swiatek I.7.4/10
Dominant favourite
Why
Surface+223 Hard Elo edgeSupports Swiatek I.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2064Supports Swiatek I.
Head-to-headLeads 3–0 on hardSupports Swiatek I.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Swiatek I.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 972
Hard ELO1 787
Last 106–4
Age28
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $8.5M2026 $2.2M
ELO2 191
Hard ELO2 061
Last 107–3
Age25
Height176 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $47.3M2026 $3.6M

Marie Bouzkova faces Iga Swiatek in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo round of 16 on hard. Iga Swiatek holds the paper edge — ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 4–0, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

15 shared · last 12 months
All 15 opponents →

Bouzkova M. and Swiatek I. faced 15 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Bouzkova M. went 5–15 (25%) against them, Swiatek I. 8–8 (50%). Swiatek I. came out better against 4 of 15 comparable opponents, Bouzkova M. against 1 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).

5–1525%Bouzkova M. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents8–850%Swiatek I. · better vs 4
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
14–31Sets20–18
185–243Games180–154
5–3Tiebreaks1–2
1–4Deciding sets2–3
Show 12 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Swiatek I. leads 4–0
Full H2H →
04

Hard: Swiatek I. leads 3–0 · Clay: Swiatek I. leads 1–0

Evidence

Bouzkova M.Swiatek I.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–47–3 (ahead)
Season win rate61% (34–22)72% (42–16) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19722191 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17872061 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 58 matches
1st-serve points won65%66% (ahead)
Return points won45%48% (ahead)
Aces / match1.71.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 53 vs 58 matches
Break points saved58%60% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast22°C · Overcast
Wind20 km/h
Humidity71%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Bouzkova M.Swiatek I.
1Days since last match3 — fresher
2 — fresherMatches · 7 days4
41 — fresherGames · 7 days68
3 — fresherMatches · 14 days6
50 — fresherGames · 14 days106
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Marie Bouzkova vs Iga Swiatek — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/bouzkova-vs-swiatek-ningbo-open-ningbo-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).