Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska | Wuhan Semi-final

UMPIRY

WuhanSemi-finalHardSat 17 Oct · 18:30Dongfeng Voyah Center Court · After 1 match

Iga Swiatek(7)WTA #9 · POL83%

VSStrong favourite · Swiatek I.

Maja Chwalinska(16)WTA #22 · POL17%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Swiatek I.

83%17%

Clear edge for Swiatek I. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Swiatek I.6.9/10

Slight advantage

Chwalinska M.4.8/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+286 Hard Elo edgeSupports Swiatek I.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 2064Supports Swiatek I.

Recent run3-match win streakInformative

This eventReached the quarters here last yearSupports Swiatek I.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Swiatek I.

ELO2 206

Hard ELO2 078

Last 108–2

Age25

Height176 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $47.3M2026 $3.6M

ELO1 926

Hard ELO1 694

Last 107–3

Age25

Height164 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $3.0M2026 $2.2M

Iga Swiatek faces Maja Chwalinska in the Wuhan semi-final on hard. Iga Swiatek holds the paper edge — ranked #9, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 290-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Iga Swiatek 118 games in 14 days, Maja Chwalinska 71.
Under pressure: Iga Swiatek has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 98 vs Maja Chwalinska's 65).
Last match: Iga Swiatek dropped just 5 games past Ann Li.

Common opponents

11 shared · last 12 months

Swiatek I. and Chwalinska M. faced 11 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Swiatek I. went 10–4 (71%) against them, Chwalinska M. 12–3 (80%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 3 better-results split).

10–471%Swiatek I. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents12–380%Chwalinska M. · better vs 3

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

22–11Sets21–9

174–122Games151–104

2–1Tiebreaks0–1

3–2Deciding sets3–0

vs Andreeva M.#3L6-3 4-6 3-6Stuttgart · clayL3-6 2-6Roland Garros · clay
vs Jovic I.#11W6-1 6-3Beijing · hardW6-4 6-1Wuhan · hard
vs Shnaider D.#13W6-2 6-1Toronto · hardL2-6 6-7(3)Cincinnati · hard

Show 8 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Mertens E.#14L6-7(0) 3-6Beijing · hardW6-2 6-2Singapore · hard
vs Kalinskaya A.#21W6-1 1-6 6-1Australian Open · hardW6-3Roland Garros · clay
vs Zheng Q.#23L5-7 3-6US Open · hardW6-4 6-0Roland Garros · clay
vs Bouzkova M.#28W7-6(3) 7-6(3)US Open · hardW1-6 6-1 6-1Wuhan · hard
vs Parry D.#32W6-3 6-3Cincinnati · hardW6-3 6-2Roland Garros · clay
vs Sakkari M.#35W4-6 6-1 6-1Cincinnati · hardW6-0 3-6 7-5Wuhan · hard
vs Townsend T.#89W6-1 2-6 6-3Wimbledon · grassL2-6 3-6US Open · hard
vs Lamens S.#230W6-3 6-2United Cup · hardW6-1 6-2Oeiras 125 Indoor 1 · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Swiatek I.Chwalinska M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–27–3

Season win rate74% (42–15)69% (37–17)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO22061926

Hard-court ELO20781694

Serve vs returnLast 57 vs 54 matches

1st-serve points won67%60%

Return points won48%49%

Aces / match1.90.7

ClutchLast 57 vs 54 matches

Break points saved61%53%

When it starts

Dongfeng Voyah Center Court · After 1 match · Not before 6:30 PM

1Kartal S. v Ostapenko J.Not before 5:00 PM
2This match: Swiatek I. v Chwalinska M.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Dongfeng Voyah Center Court · 18:30 local

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast28°C · Mainly clear

Wind8 km/h

Humidity66%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Swiatek I.Chwalinska M.

1Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days3

54Games · 7 days55

6Matches · 14 days4

118Games · 14 days71

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska — Wuhan Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/chwalinska-vs-swiatek-wuhan-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).