Iva Jovic vs Maja Chwalinska — Wuhan Round of 16

WuhanR16HardThu 15 Oct · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Jovic I.
71%29%

Clear edge for Jovic I. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Jovic I.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Chwalinska M.5.1/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+112 Hard Elo edgeSupports Jovic I.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1906Supports Jovic I.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Chwalinska M.
This eventReached the last 16 here last yearSupports Jovic I.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO2 038
Hard ELO1 851
Last 108–2
Age18
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $3.8M2026 $2.7M
ELO1 894
Hard ELO1 659
Last 105–5
Age25
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $3.0M2026 $2.2M

Iva Jovic faces Maja Chwalinska in the Wuhan round of 16 on hard. Iva Jovic holds the paper edge — ranked #11, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

10 shared · last 12 months

Jovic I. and Chwalinska M. faced 10 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Jovic I. went 6–4 (60%) against them, Chwalinska M. 4–7 (36%). Jovic I. came out better against 4 of 10 comparable opponents, Chwalinska M. against 1.

6–460%Jovic I. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents4–736%Chwalinska M. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
13–9Sets8–15
105–92Games86–109
0–2Tiebreaks0–1
1–1Deciding sets1–2
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Jovic I.Chwalinska M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate67% (42–21)67% (35–17) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2038 (ahead)1894
Hard-court ELO1851 (ahead)1659
Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 51 matches
1st-serve points won66% (ahead)60%
Return points won46%50% (ahead)
Aces / match2.3 (ahead)0.7
ClutchLast 59 vs 51 matches
Break points saved58% (ahead)53%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium
Forecast19°C · Showers
Wind9 km/h
Humidity95%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Jovic I.Chwalinska M.
7 — fresherDays since last match1
1Matches · 7 days1
16 — fresherGames · 7 days17
3Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
61Games · 14 days33 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Iva Jovic vs Maja Chwalinska — Wuhan Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/chwalinska-vs-jovic-wuhan-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).