Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro — Nottingham Final
USA
Bouzkova M.
Marie Bouzkova faces Emma Navarro in the Nottingham final on grass. Emma Navarro holds the paper edge — ranked #25, a roughly 90-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Navarro E. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Emma Navarro leads on Serve Rating (43), Marie Bouzkova on Return Rating (83).
- Last match: Marie Bouzkova dropped just 5 games past Karolina Pliskova.
- Fatigue load: Emma Navarro carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadBouzkova M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 56 games (7d) · Navarro E.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 84 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.