Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena Ostapenko — Wuhan Round of 128
Why
Surface+37 Hard Elo edgeSupports Ostapenko J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1855Supports Ostapenko J.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Kasatkina D.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardSupports Ostapenko J.
This eventReached the R64 here last yearSupports Ostapenko J.
ELO1 879
Hard ELO1 762
Last 104–6
Age29
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $15.3M2026 $1.0M
ELO1 905
Hard ELO1 738
Last 104–6
Age29
Height177 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $20.7M2026 $2.0M
Daria Kasatkina faces Jelena Ostapenko in the Wuhan round of 128 on hard. Jelena Ostapenko holds the paper edge — ranked #34, leading the head-to-head 6–2, defending last year's round of 64. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Daria Kasatkina 89 games in 14 days, Jelena Ostapenko 51.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Jelena Ostapenko grades 18 on serve, Daria Kasatkina 93 on return.
- Head-to-head: Jelena Ostapenko leads the head-to-head 6–2, 1–1 on hard. Last met at Adelaide 2024.
Common opponents
9 shared · last 12 monthsKasatkina D. and Ostapenko J. faced 9 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Kasatkina D. went 4–7 (36%) against them, Ostapenko J. 6–5 (55%). Ostapenko J. came out better against 4 of 9 comparable opponents, Kasatkina D. against 2.
4–736%Kasatkina D. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents6–555%Ostapenko J. · better vs 4
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
12–15Sets16–11
128–137Games139–116
1–3Tiebreaks1–1
1–4Deciding sets1–4
vs Sabalenka A.#2L0-6 5-7Roland Garros · clayL4-6 4-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Mertens E.#14W6-4 6-0Doha · hardL2-6 6-3 3-6Beijing · hard
vs Kalinskaya A.#21L4-6 1-6Washington · hardW6-1 6-2Rome · clay
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- vs Potapova A.#26L5-7 6-4 4-6Brisbane · hardL6-4 4-6 4-6Madrid · clay
vs Wang X.#39W1-6 7-6(5) 7-5Toronto · hardL6-4 4-6 4-6Australian Open · hard
vs Badosa P.#58L6-4 6-7(7) 4-6Beijing · hardW7-6(5) 7-5Beijing · hard
vs Sonmez Z.#59W6-4 6-4Roland Garros · clayW6-3 6-0Eastbourne · grass
vs Waltert S.#110L6-7 6-3 4-6Abu Dhabi · hardW6-2 7-5Madrid · clay- vs Zakharova A.#111W6-4 6-2Strasbourg · clayW6-7 6-3 6-4Doha · hard
Head-to-head
8 meetings · Ostapenko J. leads 6–226
Hard: level 1–1 · Clay: Ostapenko J. leads 2–1 · Grass: Ostapenko J. leads 3–0
- Ostapenko J.January 2024AdelaideHard6-3 6-2
- Ostapenko J.May 2023RomeClay6-4 4-6 6-0
- Ostapenko J.June 2021WimbledonGrass6-1 3-6 8-6
- Ostapenko J.June 2021EastbourneGrass1-6 7-5 6-2
- Kasatkina D.August 2017US OpenHard6-3 6-2
Evidence
Kasatkina D.Ostapenko J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–64–6
Season win rate52% (24–22)53% (23–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO18791905 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO1762 (ahead)1738
Serve vs returnLast 40 vs 39 matches
1st-serve points won59%67% (ahead)
Return points won49% (ahead)44%
Aces / match2.03.7 (ahead)
ClutchLast 40 vs 39 matches
Break points saved52%54% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena Ostapenko — Wuhan Round of 128", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/kasatkina-vs-ostapenko-wuhan-r128?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).