Jelena Ostapenko vs Daria KasatkinaAdelaide Final

Adelaide · WTA · Final
#31WTA
1855ELO
1794Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 8 January 2024
hard
#65WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
Ostapenko J.
6-3 6-2
Kasatkina D.
Ostapenko J.
662
Kasatkina D.
320

Jelena Ostapenko defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-3 6-2 in the Adelaide final on hard. The result followed the form book — Jelena Ostapenko came in ranked #31, leading the head-to-head 4–2. Jelena Ostapenko extended the head-to-head to 5–2.

Key context

Head to head

42
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-05-08RomeR16clayJelena Ostapenko6-4 4-6 6-0
2021-06-28WimbledonR64grassJelena Ostapenko6-1 3-6 8-6
2021-06-21EastbourneQFgrassJelena Ostapenko1-6 7-5 6-2
2017-08-28US OpenR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-3 6-2
2017-04-03CharlestonFclayDaria Kasatkina6-3 6-1
2016-06-20EastbourneR64grassJelena Ostapenko4-6 6-2 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Ostapenko J.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Kasatkina D.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Ostapenko J.Kasatkina D.
10
Serve
0
45
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
42%
Service points won·Even
56%
54%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Even
53%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
1.7
Double faults / match·Even
5.7
5.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (104 vs 120). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
78
Break points saved·Even
79
80
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Even
96
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
87
47

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+37 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1757
5.2Overall Elo 1855
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1795
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.0
Surface form
6.8
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.3
Minutes 14d
7.4
4.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
9.0
5.5
Country comfort
6.5
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
88
87

Ostapenko J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Kasatkina D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 62%