Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena OstapenkoRome Round of 16

Rome · WTA · Round of 16
#20WTA
1907ELO
1804Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$7.0MCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 11 May 2026 ·
clay
#31WTA
1855ELO
1808Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
Kalinskaya A.
1-6 2-6
Ostapenko J.
Kalinskaya A.
120
Ostapenko J.
662

Jelena Ostapenko defeated Anna Kalinskaya 6-1 6-2 in the Rome round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Anna Kalinskaya came in ranked #20, leading the head-to-head 4–0, defending last year's round of 64. Jelena Ostapenko claimed a first win over Anna Kalinskaya in five meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

40
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-15DubaiR64hardAnna Kalinskaya2-6 6-1 6-4
2024-03-18MiamiR32hardAnna Kalinskaya6-3 6-1
2024-02-19DubaiR16hardAnna Kalinskaya6-4 7-5
2023-01-09Adelaide 2R32hardAnna Kalinskaya6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Kalinskaya A.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Ostapenko J.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Kalinskaya A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Service points won·Even
57%
55%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
49%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.6
3.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.6
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
88
88
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
79
Break points won·Even
97
100
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Clay Elo 1804
Surface ELO
5.5+4 Clay Elo edge
5.8Overall Elo 1907
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1855
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.2
Surface form
5.9
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.0
Country comfort
5.9
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
88

Kalinskaya A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Ostapenko J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final