Nuno Borges vs Brandon Nakashima — Cincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 16
Nuno Borges
POR
Nuno Borges
#47ATP
1769ELO
1714Hard ELO
$811kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWLWL
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 3 · 4th on
Brandon Nakashima
USA27
Brandon Nakashima
#22ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWLW
Borges N.
3-6 7-6 3-6
Nakashima B.
Borges N.
37731
Nakashima B.
66562

Brandon Nakashima defeated Nuno Borges in the Round of 16 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 on hard courts. Nakashima hit 27 aces to Borges' 8 and converted 22% of break points, while Borges did not convert any. Nakashima won 85% of first-serve points to Borges' 73%, and he broke Borges' serve twice.

Around the match

  • “I played amazing. It means a lot to be in the fourth round. It's a big moment for me.”

    Borges N.Inquirer.net ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Borges N.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Even
66%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
69%
Return points won·Even
35%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
10.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Borges N.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
58
38
Break points saved·Even
93
96
Break points won·Clear edge
23
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
91
44
Tiebreaks·Dominant
53
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Borges N.41%
Nakashima B.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Nakashima B. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Borges N.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Nakashima B.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1714
Surface ELO
5.9+74 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1769
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1839
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Borges N.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Slight edge
52
44

Borges N.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 108 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 106 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw