Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima — Cincinnati Quarter-final

Cincinnati · ATP · Quarter-final
Taylor Fritz
USA6
Taylor Fritz
#10ATP
1909ELO
1839Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$31MCAREER
28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 21 August 2026 ·
hard
P&G STADIUM COURT · 3rd on
Brandon Nakashima
USA27
Brandon Nakashima
#17ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
Fritz T.
6-7 6-4 3-6
Nakashima B.
Fritz T.
69631
Nakashima B.
711462

Brandon Nakashima defeated Taylor Fritz in the Cincinnati quarterfinals, winning 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 on hard courts. Nakashima and Fritz were even in service breaks, with each player converting two. Nakashima had 13 aces and 4 double faults, while Fritz had 22 aces and 3 double faults.

Around the match

  • “Down match points, I was just trying to tell myself to keep fighting for every point. I'm super happy with the level in the third.”

    Nakashima B.Last Word On Sports ↗

  • “Throughout these matches, there's always ups and downs, times where I'm not feeling as good, but I just try to stick through every moment and keep fighting.”

    Nakashima B.Last Word On Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

4–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-01WashingtonSFhardTaylor Fritz3-6 6-3 3-6
2026-02-09DallasR16hardTaylor Fritz6-3 6-4
2024-08-12Cincinnati MastersR64hardBrandon Nakashima6-4 4-6 7-6
2021-10-04Indian Wells MastersR64hardTaylor Fritz6-3 6-4
2021-06-28WimbledonR128grassTaylor Fritz7-5 3-6 6-4 7-5
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Fritz T.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Even
68%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
80%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
51%
Service points won·Even
72%
69%
Return points won·Even
33%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
15.9
10.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.7
0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Fritz T.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
77
43
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Dominant
36
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
55
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Fritz T.67%
Nakashima B.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Fritz T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fritz T.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Nakashima B.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+51 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1788
5.9Overall Elo 1909
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1839
6.4Leads 2–1 on hard
H2H
3.6Trails 1–2 on hard
8.99 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Fritz T.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Slight edge
85
77

Fritz T.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Nakashima B.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw